IV Ciclo de Webinars do OIMC: debater os principais temas e estrategias relacionados ao enfrentamento da emergência climática global. Laboratório de Ensino e Pesquisa em Relações Internacionais (LabRI), do Instituto Clima e Sociedade (iCS) e do The Climate Reality Project Brasil.
Dr. Salam Al Rabadi
Water gap has become one of the most important
dialectics that arise in international relations, to the point of believing
that the coming wars will be primarily wars and competition over water
resources. Consequently, water scarcity poses a serious threat to human security[1], as there are currently more than 80 countries in which 40% of
the world's population are suffering from severe water shortage[2], an estimated 3.6 billion people (that is, about half of the
world's population) live in areas with potentially scarce water [3], and this number could increase to between 4.8 billion and 5.7
billion by 2050 [4].
On this level, the Millennium Development Goals were
adopted, which included a pledge to halve the number of people who cannot
access safe and affordable water in the year 2015, yet more than a billion
people at the end of the water decade still do not have access to that water.
Where it appears that there is a new gap that can be called the water gap and
it is getting wider. [5]
Based
on that, and given the perceptions of future global risks in terms of the
ability to affect, water crises were classified as the greatest risk that the
world will face in the near future[6].
As it seems that in the future, several problematic will arise in international
relations about what is required to be achieved in terms of how to approach the
water gap, which are as follows:
1-
Are there creative political and diplomatic
visions that can deal with water problematic according to a viable scientific
approach, governance and accountability?
2-
Will the hidden hands in the market play their
game in the event that the political approaches fail, so that the approach will
be transferred to the economy and that water issues become commodities subject
to the logic of buying and selling only? Or will knowledge markets stand as a
barrier to that approach?
According
to these are problematic, methodically, we must focus first on the dilemma of
how to understand the complexities of the water system, as it is clear from
this that the water gap is a complex system that must be well understood, in
order to find a logical approach and sustainable solutions. Hence, when
thinking about the crisis of water scarcity, it is imperative that the focus is
not limited to the absolute deficiency between the total needs and the
available supplies, but also to focus on:
-
The location of clean, usable water, and the costs of transporting it to
population communities.
-
Water footprint, or what is called: the global standard for water
footprint [7].
-
The possibility of having large quantities of water sufficient to grow
food . [8]
Therefore, in
order to understand the water crisis, it is necessary to distinguish between
two different problems that require various solutions: the first lies in how to
obtain affordable drinking water (i.e. the problem of services), and the
second lies in how to secure water sources for food cultivation (i.e. the
problem of water scarcity). Hence, based on these problems, water
challenges can be classified as follows:
1-
The crisis of
access to water [9].
2-
Water
pollution crisis.
3-
The crisis of
water shortage and scarcity . [10]
Thus, the scientific and political communities must recognize the global
and local causes of water crises and respond effectively to them. By looking at
the mechanism of the interrelationship between those challenges or crises, it
is possible to determine the characteristics of the water gap and the factors
that can help solve it. As a result, it is imperative to try to understand the
political drivers and the rationale for the water and environmental
decision-making process at the local or global level, and to focus on a wide
range of options, which have to do with understanding the changes in the
structure of the global water crisis, and how to predict it. Consequently, this
reality requires adopting a vision that is a combination of:
a- The shift towards a more holistic view of water
management and transfer for higher value uses.
b- Adopting technical solutions combining nanotechnology
and solid evidence about climate risk management[11].
In this context, although many alternative solutions are known, their
application is not easy if taking into account the political and economic
costs. In spite of all that, it can be said that the current watery pessimism
can be transformed into optimism for the future, if there is a clear strategic
political vision. Unfortunately, though, the global repercussions of the
water gap have become evident (to some extent), nevertheless, it is rarely
thought of as a global political challenge, as there is currently no strategic
vision on the level of how to approach the water gap.
Note that there was previously (at the start of the work of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"IPCC") an initial awareness of the political and
social dimensions of the importance of water issues, parallel to the awareness
that existed for the dimensions of the climate change problematic[12]. But, of course, there are many question marks, if we know
that the climate group (IPCC) needed nearly
30 years of work before the world took the climate crisis seriously, and
therefore what is the case with the water gap[13]?
As for the political strategic aspect, we can suffice here to refer to
the review of the US security report (for the American Intelligence Agency "CIA"),
on future expectations of global trends or challenges in the year 2030, which
directly indicates that the reality of the water crisis will inevitably lead to
geopolitical changes, which will be profound, and very rapid, accordingly, the
occurrence of conflicts of a water nature between states cannot be excluded[14].
Based on this, many question marks are raised about the attempt to deny
warnings about the outbreak of wars and imminent disputes over water (or to
consider them as mere false allegations), as it became clear that there are
very serious strategic repercussions that are definitely linked to the process
of competition between countries for the acquisition of Fresh water.
Consequently, it must be recognized that water wars do exist and have
become a reality, although this has not been directly recognized yet[15]. Accordingly, the continuation of the logic of absenting the
political dimension of water problematic is not justified, especially at the
level of international organizations[16]. Where, it must be recognized that the global changes related
to the water gap clearly show that the level of security in international
relations has changed profoundly.
In conclusion, it seems that the impact of climate change on the global
political level will make the water gap a hot political issue, and this
requires widespread water awareness and the recognition that climate change is
real and lasting. Then, most likely, we might perceive the fact that if
strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in their entirety revolve around
energy issues, but all strategies to adapt to climate change will absolutely
and inevitable be based revolve and around the water problematic.
[1] The volume of fresh water
is 35 million / km3, which is an average of only 2.5% of the total volume of
water on Earth. The total volume of water on Earth is about 1.4 billion / km3,
and most of it is salt water found in the seas and oceans. To follow up on the
latest water statistics and data, you can review: The World Water Council
website:http://www.worldwatercouncil.org. Also the World Water Forum website : http://www.world waterforum7.org.
[2] Water rationing has
become in many countries the general rule rather than the exception, due to the
inability to provide drinking water on a sustainable basis. Just to name a few,
many large Indian cities face severe water shortages. In some Indian states,
water reaches homes only for several hours a week. On the water reality in
India, can review the WorldBank website, which is specialized in Indian
affairs : http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/india .
[3] for at least one month
per year.
[4] "Nature-Based
Solutions For Water", The UN World Water Report,NY,2018. See: https://reliefweb.
int/sites/relie fweb.int/files/resources/261424e.pdf.
[5] For more information
about the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, you can review: https://www.un. org/
millenniumgoals/.
[6] The other risks in terms of impact are: 1- The
rapid and widespread spread of infectious diseases. 2- Weapons of mass
destruction. 3- Conflicts between states. 4- Failure to adapt to
climate changes. This is based on the vision of nearly 900 experts who
participated in the World Economic Forum 2015 survey on the most prominent
scenarios of future global risks, in terms of their likelihood of occurrence
and their ability to influence over the next 10 years. The report can be found
at the following link: http://wef.ch/grr2015.
[7] The water footprint is: the total
volume of fresh water that is used to produce goods and services consumed by
the individual, society, institutions and factories. In other words: the water
footprint measures the amount of water used to produce each of the goods and
services we use. So, the water footprint can help drive strategic action toward
sustainable, efficient and equitable water use. Also, they provide powerful
insights for businesses to understand their water-related business risk, for
governments to understand the role of water in their economy and water
dependency, and for consumers to know how much water is hidden in the products
they use.
Look: https://waterfootprint.org/en/ .
[8] Water scarcity not
only means there is not enough water for drinking, it also means that there is
not enough water to grow food.
[9] The UN and NGOs are drawing attention to the
fact that more than a billion people do not have access to clean drinking
water. As a result, one of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals has
been to halve the proportion of those who do not have sustainable access to
clean drinking water. Despite celebrating these goals as extremely important
humanitarian directives, the international community has not progressed much in
achieving them so far, which raises the question of the underlying reasons
behind the difficulty of achieving these goals?
[10] Water scarcity can be considered the main component of
the triple water crisis, because it can cause both water shortages and water
pollution, or at least exacerbate them.
[11] The scientific
development in water sciences and nanotechnology looks promising (especially on
the problematic level of water scarcity), as it promises to reduce the costs of
desalination of sea water and the possibility of finding specialized wastewater
purification.
[12] (IPCC) was established
in 1988 to provide comprehensive assessments of the state of scientific,
technical, social and economic understanding of climate change, its causes, potential
impacts, and strategies to address this change. You can review its website at
the following link: https://www.ipcc.ch/ .
[13] For example, the
possibility of running out of groundwater in northern India during the coming
decades and the resulting collapse of the agricultural sector, is not seen as a
global problem. The same applies to the Yellow River, which no longer reaches
the sea. Not to mention that walking three hours a day to reach clean drinking
water in rural Africa is not seen as a global problem.
[14] Report,"Global Trends
2030: Alternative Worlds",Office of the Director of National
Intelligence,National Intelligence Council,U.S.A,2012,p.2.
[15] For example: 1-
The Punjab wars were in part wars related to water problems, due to the
strategies of exploiting rivers' water and distributing it to the population. 2-
The internal war in Afghanistan is of a water nature due to drought. 3-
The intractable issue of Kashmir, has
strategic water calculations by both India and Pakistan. 4- The
Arab-Israeli conflict is, in an important aspect, a struggle over water
resources. 5- The Sudanese crisis in Darfur, at its core, is a struggle
over water. 6- The crises between Turkey, Syria and Iraq related to the
sharing of the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. 7- The tense
water situation between Egypt, Sudan, Uganda and Ethiopia about the waters of
the Nile River. 8- The Syrian war (2011-2021) has a dangerous water and
climate dimension. 9- The wars of terrorism have become watery (it is
sufficient here to just think of ISIS's attempt to blow up the water dams in
Syria and Iraq).
[16] Despite the positive
paradigm shift of the United Nations reports in highlighting the water gap, the
issue of how to confront the political dimensions of water crises is being
ignored (almost completely(.
