Dr. Salam Al Rabadi.
All propositions that indicate and predict the
decline or rise of global powers remain subject to debate and uncertainty.
There is no scientific method that allows for accurate predictions about the
future of the global system. For example, if we consider that that the current
tariff war between the United States and China, Rare Materials Wars, or the
recent wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon, Yemen and Syria have raised
serious questions about the global balance of power.
But here we must bear in mind, contrary to what is common among many
academic elites, that changes in the balance of power at the level of
international relations are no longer largely subject to a "zero-sum game"; on the contrary, it has become a "non-zero-sum game". That is, the increase in the influence, authority, and power of one
country does not necessarily mean that other countries will completely lose
their influence, authority, and power..
Moreover, the fact that one country is the most powerful no longer means
at all that it is the only country that possesses or monopolizes power and
influence. In this context, we can address the problematic of trying to compare
the growing power of China and the declining position of the United States. Here
we must draw attention to the fact that this decline is due more to the change
in the nature of the global system than to the military or political weakness
of the United States, or both. This is a result of the inevitability of the
profound changes and transformations that the structure of global society has
undergone.
It is clear that
contemporary international relations are now based on a system with power
distributed rather than concentrated in one direction, as there are
intersections and intertwinings of interests and influences. But despite all
these facts, we cannot ignore the basic dialectic:
How is it possible that the
real influence of American power did not last more than 25 years?
Moreover, based on extrapolated conclusions related to the fall of
empires or the current reality of world politics, it is clear that the relative
decline of American power will continue regardless of attempts to correct it. Consequently,
the most logical questions may focus not on whether China will become the
world's first superpower, but:
·
When will that happen? And does China really
want or think about assuming the responsibility of world leadership?
·
And if China has such a desire, is it willing to
do so? Does this serve its strategic interests at the current moment?
Based on the repercussions of recent wars, conflicts and crises at all
levels (political, economic, and cultural), it is possible to address the
problems of classification of the global system, which are linked to the terms
unipolarity or bipolarity, which have lost their meaning. It seems
difficult to see a global system controlled by one or even two poles.
This is due to many qualitative factors, whether military, economic, political,
cultural, environmental, technological, etc., which have become among the most
important determinants of international relations, including, but not limited
to:
•
There is no single country that enjoys
superiority in all elements of power.
•
The era of knowledge that crosses political,
cultural and security borders.
•
The phenomenon of terrorism in all its
manifestations.
•
The environmental issue and climate change in
all its aspects.
•
The problematic demographics and migration.
•
Dilemmas of artificial intelligence and
scientific and technological progress at all levels.
•
The interconnection and multiplicity of
influence of many forces within the global economy.
•
Radical changes in the standards for measuring
military and security capabilities.
Therefore, it can be said that the world of
international relations today is subject to an apolar system. As a result of the
inevitable pattern of changes that have increased the scope of complexities
associated with the issues of terrorism, environment, technology, media, real, rare materials, and electronic viruses, etc. This
pattern supports the non-polar system according to several trends or paths,
including:
• Many flows occur outside the
control of states and therefore limit the influence of great powers.
•
Some developments serve regional countries and
increase their margin of effectiveness and independence.
•
The existence of enormous wealth and influence
subject to the control of new active forces, such as non-governmental
organizations, transnational corporations, political movements,
individuals,…etc.
In light of
the above, we are currently in an era far removed from the classic
classifications associated with the term polarity, not to mention the
difficulty of fully understanding the enormous structural transformations in
the structure of the global economy and the reality of international politics.
Therefore, it must be kept in
mind that although the apolar system is inevitable, it requires caution, as it
may generate more randomness and instability. Where logically, the
problematic now lies in how to find the kind of balances and understandings
associated with the configuration of the non-polar world.
In the context of talking
about balances, we must remember the fact that the regularity system will not
emerge on its own or automatically. Even if the apolar system is left to
function according to its randomness or spontaneity, this will make it more
complex and dangerous and thus move towards more chaos and absurdity.
Consequently, attention must be directed to potential risks, where an apolar
world order will complicate political diplomacy and alliances will lose much of
their importance, because they require strategic vision to face predictable
threats and compromises.
But
unfortunately, not all of these standards are expected to be available in a
non-polar world. On this basis, it is extremely difficult to predict future
political scenarios, which seems like a scientific task of enormous
proportions, which forces us to adopt and raise a series of questions about the
nature of the powers capable (in particular, China) of taking the initiative
and assuming the responsibility of global leadership in the light of a
non-polar system.
