Salam al Rabadi : researcher and
author in international relations\ spain
There are a lot of problems which relate
to the global system which requires trying to read the future from different angles to the identity of this system and the main actors in
it. And in the midst of this
fact the term comes
the era of non-polar expression of the world moves from a unipolar system
to a system in which the polar non-existent in
its various forms or become meaningless whoever unipolar or bipolar or multipolar. therefore because of the quality of many factors:
cultural, economic, political….
These factors have become a feature of our time and will remain for quite a few
years. In fact some of them it is today the most important determinants of many
global and regional affairs and even local. The entry of the era of information
network which generates interdependence of cross-border political and
geographical. Also the existence of global networks of interactive between the
institutions of global civil society and the rapid ascent of the role of
individuals. Therefore that global variables realism and intellectual and
philosophical approaches in light of the so-called era of globalization it is
impossible to make a strategic talk about the system _ international or global
_ controlled by one pole or multiple poles disputing power around the world.
According to the theory of realism and read through the global history of great
powers , must foretelling the end of the unipolar and the search for the great
powers at the level of the new states.
But,
there are some problems, and
complexities raised the level of
difficulty of predicting trends in
the evolution of the global system,
and that makes future
scenarios scientific daunting
task because these phenomena are still in
the process of forming and configuration.
In spite of trying a lot of
elites , look for ways to support the United States of America site in the
emerging global reality for fear of getting caught in a vacuum or in order to
prevent chaos. And that the United States can continue to practice the role of
the polar world in spite of the fall from unipolar site which dates back to the
emergence of new powers on the world stage rather than due to the weakness of
military or political weakness or both.
Since the transfer of power and the change in
the balance of power is Non Zero-Samgame
results. In other words, to
increase the influence and authority and power of
a state, does not necessarily mean,
the loss of other major countries
to control global influence.
In all cases, we
ask questions, the
following strategy:
Surprisingly, How
the American influence was the fact realism but did not continue or settle
for more than 15 or 20 years?????
Can we say through timescale or historical logic:
that this time period is just a moment. Therefore
we can not build on it?????
Seems to be no escape from the conclusion based
on the historical record, that
the long-term relative decline
of U.S. power continues until this moment.
Based
on this, now the question becomes logical and strategic in
the range of scientific and academic research, is:
Not whether China will become a global superpower but
when will it happen?????
Finally, there are many fundamental questions, which operates the thinking elites throughout
the world, in the areas of political,
economy, culture and the environment, which is trying to explore the future of the world. It is fun questions, carrying
with it all the fun
of additional new
when we try to read the political future of our world.
But the problem
remains essentially based on whether anyone
can predict the
future of the current powers of
the world?
